Broderick McDonald
Broderick McDonald is an academic researcher at Oxford University, Kings College London and The Alan Turing Institute with a decade of experience across government, academia, and civil society. His research focuses on countering global security threats from terrorism, extremism, and disinformation. Broderick's research and commentary have appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and The National Interest amongst others. Alongside his research, Broderick provides expert analysis for a range of international news broadcasters, including ABC News, BBC News, BBC America, CBC News, PBS, Good Morning America, France24, and Al Jazeera News.
Broderick McDonald is a Research Fellow at Kings College London's XCEPT Research Programme, and a Research Associate at the Oxford Emerging Threats Group. Outside of this, he is a Visiting Fellow at The Alan Turing Institute's Centre for Emerging Technology & Security (CETaS) where his work focusses on preventing high-severity adversarial threats from terrorism, extremism, and disinformation. Prior to this, he served as an Advisor in Parliament and as a researcher with the All Party Parliamentary Group for Genocide Prevention. Previously, he was a Fellow with the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and the Royal Society of the Arts. He previously lived in the Middle East and conducted extensive interviews with armed combatants and foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and combatants from ISIS, HTS, and other armed groups. Broderick has conducted fieldwork across the Middle East and Central Asia, including Jordan, Lebanon, Türkiye, Uzbekistan and organised Large-N quantitative and qualitative research projects. His research has been funded by the University of Oxford, the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), UK International Development, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kings College London, and the Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). He currently serves on the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT)'s Independent Advisory Committee, an initiative established by Meta, Google, Microsoft, and other technology platforms to counter terrorist misuse of the internet. Outside of this, he serves on the GLOCA Board of Advisors, the EU VOX-Pol Network of Excellence leadership team, and the Aspen Institute UK's RLF Advisory Board. Alongside his research, Broderick has advised international prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies, NGOs, parliamentarians, AI Security Institutes, frontier AI labs, and social media platforms on security threats and emerging technologies
Consulting
Collaboration and research reports to develop new solutions to growing public policy challenges
Media, Talks, Events
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Resources
Jihadist Rebel Governance Database (JGD)
The Jihadist Governance Database (JGD) is a repository of historical documents relating to rebel governance by Jihadist-Salafist extremist groups who control territory and exert influence over civilians. The development of Jihadist governed 'proto-states' represents on the most important strategic developments in the history of extremism and more research is needed to measure, analyse, and respond to it. The database includes thousands of text, audio, image, and video files relating to rebel governance by Jihadist-Salafist groups and is updated biannually to include contemporary and future instances. The database includes partial open-source data on Jihadist proto-states from West Africa (AQIM/JNIM), the Middle East (Nusra/HTS, ISIL/Daesh), and Central Asia (Afghan Taliban) from 2011 onwards, drawn primarily from social media and encrypted messaging platforms. Diverse aspects of Jihadist Governance — including taxation, education, legal courts, municipal infrastructure, ministries and bureaucratic organisation, economic trade, state-owned enterprises, utilities (electricity, water, sanitation), and defence — are captured by the database. Jihadist Governance represents an important phenomenon and the records of groups engaging in this form of statecraft should be preserved for future research and analysis, however given the sensitivity of some documents the JGD limits access. There is no cost to access the Jihadist Governance Database (JGD) but researchers and other users must submit a Database Access Form along with their details to gain accreditation. All users of the JGD confirm they will not replicate or share the JGD to those without a university affiliation or any group in question. Inclusion of new material is added as new groups emerge and previous groups dissolve or merge. Data collection has now stopped and additional content will not be uploaded.
Researchers with an academic affiliation can email for access to the database but should have a legitimate and well-defined research project underway and prior experience or publications in the field.
Non-State Actors Trajectories Database (NSATD)
The Non-State Actors Trajectories Database (NSATD) is an open-source and free-to-use repository of historical and contemporary information about the relative strength of major armed rebel groups in the Syrian Civil War (including ISIS / Daesh, Nusra Front / Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Sunnah, Hurras al-Din). While the Syrian Civil War is one of the most important and closely studied conflicts, analysis of it has been limited by a lack of comprehensive comparative data about the combatants active in each major armed rebel group or coalition. Despite the need for this data, it is lacking from all of the existing databases surveyed, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and the Stanford Mapping Militants Program (MMP). Combining data from local and international news media, United Nations (UN) reports, and academic databases, the NSATD triangulates the available sources to track the relative strength of each major group in Syria from 2011-2022. Where data for an existing group or coalition is unavailable the NSATD, uses adjacent information and historical context to provide an informed estimate. Data collection in conflict zones is perennially complicated and limited by the inherent challenges associated with data collection, but the NSATD attempts to mitigate these gaps in our knowledge by leverage all available information to provide comprehensive predicted values for years when documented numbers are missing. As with any estimates of combatant numbers, even from governmental sources, the NSATD data is approximate. Support from the research community in identifying new details or sources of data on combatant strength is welcomed and encouraged as the project grows. While hundreds of small groups were initially active in the conflict, many of these merged or were consolidated into the larger non-state groups and coalitions that NSATD focuses on. Additionally, smaller groups and regions (including outside Syria) are expected to be added in the future. Graphs and charts are presented alongside the data to help researchers visualise the data and highlight emergent trends within the the conflict. For more information, please visit the NSATD website.
Researchers with an academic affiliation can email for access to the database but should have a legitimate and well-defined research project underway and prior experience or publications in the field.
Research Interests
Online Harms & AI Security
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Mis/Disinformation
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Terrorism and Violent Extremist Content (TVEC)
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Classifier Models
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Agentic Models
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Sycophancy Bias/Ideological Persuasion
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General Purpose AI Systems
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Red Teaming Methodologies
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Benchmarks & Model Evals
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Content Moderation & Hash-Sharing
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Trust & Safety
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AI Safety & Governance
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Researcher Safety
Geographic Focus: Europe and North America, Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, Sahel
Peace & Conflict
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Insurgencies
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Political Violence
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Civil Conflict
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Inter Rebel Competition
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Rebel Governance
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Jihadist Proto-States
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Micro-Dynamics of Conflict
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Jihadist Rebels in Civil Conflict
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Terrorism / Counterterrorism
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Fieldwork Methods
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Quantitative Surveys
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Behavioural Science
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Ethnographic Interviews
Geographic Focus: Middle East and North Africa, Sahel, Central Asia
Recent Publications
Emerging Technologies & Terrorist Misuse (Book Chapter)
Broderick McDonald, Nagham al-Karhili, Benjamin Mok, Lara Nonninger, and Guy Fiennes. In Routledge Handbook on Online Extremism, edited by Suraj Lakhani. New York: Routledge, forthcoming.
America Is Running the Wrong AI Race
The National Interest
Lisa Klaassen, Broderick McDonald
Access: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland/america-is-running-the-wrong-ai-race
Winning the Deployment Race
The Stimson Center (Washington DC)
Broderick McDonald, Lisa Klaassen
Access: https://www.stimson.org/2026/america-is-running-the-wrong-ai-race/
Terrorist and Extremist Exploitation of AI Systems: Emerging Threats and Technical Solutions
UK Home Affairs Committee
Broderick McDonald (OxDEL)
Submission to the Home Affairs Committee Inquiry, UK House of Commons: Combatting New Forms of Extremism, June 2025.
AI-Enabled Terrorism: CBRN Threats (Book Chapter)
Broderick McDonald and Lara Nonninger. In Encyclopedia of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Law, edited by Stuart MacDonald, 75–80. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, forthcoming.
The Right Way to Engage With Syria’s New Rulers
Foreign Affairs
Nafees Hamid, Nils Mallock, Broderick McDonald, Rahaf Aldoughli
Access: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/right-way-engage-syrias-new-rulers-assad
The Long Road to Damascus: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Assad, and the Future of Syria
Just Security (New York University, Reiss Center on Law and Security)
Access: https://www.justsecurity.org/106215/syria-assad-regime-what-next/
The Drones of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): The Development and Use of UAS in Syria
Global Network on Extremism and Technology, Kings College London
Access: https://gnet-research.org/2024/12/20/the-drones-of-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-the-development-and-use-of-uas-in-syria/
A New Far-Right Threat to Democratic Elections
Al Jazeera
Access: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/5/2/active-clubs-a-new-far-right-threat-to-democratic-elections
ISIS Extremists are Seeping Back into the Mainstream: Algorithmic Detection and Evasion Tactics on Social Media Platforms
Global Network on Extremism & Technology, Kings College London
Access: https://gnet-research.org/2022/10/31/extremists-are-seeping-back-into-the-mainstream-algorithmic-detection-and-evasion-tactics-on-social-media-platforms/
Tech Against Terrorism: Extremism, Elections, and Active Clubs
Tech Against Terrorism
Broderick McDonald
Access: https://podcast.techagainstterrorism.org/1684819/14864219-active-clubs-fitness-fraternity-and-fascism
The Use of Generative AI in Disinformation & Extremism
Oxford Disinformation & Extremism Lab (OxDEL)
Broderick McDonald
Access: https://www.oxdisinformationextremismlab.com/research/article/the-use-of-ai-in-disinformation-extremism-separating-fact-from-fiction
Counter-Terrorism in the Sahel: The Wagner Group's Growing Shadow
United States Military Academy at West Point (Modern War Institute)
Broderick McDonald, Guy Fiennes
Access: https://mwi.usma.edu/the-wagner-groups-growing-shadow-in-the-sahel-what-does-it-mean-for-counterterrorism-in-the-region/
The Future of Al Qaeda, ISIL, and the Global Jihadi-Salafi Movement
Oxford Disinformation & Extremism Lab (OxDEL)
Broderick McDonald
Access: https://www.oxdisinformationextremismlab.com/research/article/terrorism-al-qaeda-isis-isil-article-broderick-brody-mcdonald
How Far Right Extremists Respond to Failed Predictions
Global Network on Extremism & Technology, Kings College London
Broderick McDonald
Access: https://gnet-research.org/2021/03/31/how-qanon-reacts-to-failed-predictions/
Public Lectures & Invited Talks
McDonald, Broderick. "Geopolitics of AI" Panel with Daisy McGregor (Anthropic), Robert Trager (AIGI), Amy Harland (FCDO / Faculty AI), Sarah Wahedi (Civaam), at The Oxford Generative AI Summit, Oxford, England, October 2025
McDonald, Broderick. "Algorithmic Warfare: Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and National Security" Panel with Adam McCauley (Senior Policy Advisor Government of Canada) and Tsvetelina van Benthem (Blavatnik School of Government) at The Oxford Emerging Threats Group, Oxford, England, October 2025
McDonald, Broderick. "Gaming, Extremism, and Counterterrorism" at the Global Coalition Against Daesh Communications Working Group, UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) and the Global Coalition Against ISIS, The Royal Society, September 2025
McDonald, Broderick. "Unraveling the Present, Forecasting the Future with Broderick McDonald" on The International Risk Podcast with Dominic Bowens and Elisa Garbil. Remote, September 2025
McDonald, Broderick. "Terrorist Use of Agentic AI" at the Aqaba Process Expert-Level Conference on Disrupting Terrorist Activities Through Generative AI”, The Royal Hashemite Court and UK Ministry of Defence, London, England, July 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “Terrorist Misuse of AI Systems for Attack Planning, TVEC, and CBRN Threats”, Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF)/US State Department, Doha, Qatar, 28 June 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “AI Safety in Practice: Safeguarding Against Real‑World Misuse and Near‑Term Harms.”, Oxford Technology & Security Nexus (OTSN), Nuffield College, Oxford University, 15 May 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “Preparing Industry for Near-Term & Immediate Harms from AI Systems”, Global Internet Forum for Countering Terrorism (GIFCT), AI Industry Working Group, London, United Kingdom, 10 May 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “Preventing Exploitation of AI Systems by Terrorist & Extremist Entities, Hostile Foreign States, and Organized Crime”, Emerging Threats Group, Changing Character of War Centre, Pembroke College, Oxford University, 23 February 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “Foreign Terrorist Fighters & Global Networks in Syria” XCEPT Research Conference, Centre for Statecraft & National Security, Kings College London, 13-14 May 2025
McDonald, Broderick. “Digital Evidence and Emerging Security Threats from Non-State Actors”, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) / IIJ Training on Digital Evidence in a Counter Terrorism Context for the International Prosecutors, Valetta, Malta, 27-28 January 2025
McDonald, Broderick, Nafees Hamid, Rahaf Al-Doughli, Nils Mallock. “From Rebels to Rulers”, The War Studies Podcast, Kings College London, 18 January 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “Israel, Syria, and the Six-Day War”, BBC The Conflict: Middle East Podcast, London, 20 December 2024
McDonald, Broderick, Nafees Hamid, Rahaf Al-Doughli, Nils Mallock. “Towards a New Syria: Understanding the Motivations and Values of Syria’s New Rulers”, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), Kings College London, 18 January 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “The Use of Drones & Emerging Technology by Non-State Actors”, The Global Tech Podcast, Somewhere on Earth Productions, BBC Studios, London, 17 December 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “Use of AI in Preventing Online Harms & Malicious Actors”, Hedayah International Research Conference, Queen Elizabeth II Centre, London, 29-30 October 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “AI and UAS Drone Systems”, Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF), Lancaster House, London, 22-23 October 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “Using AI to Prevent Online Harms”, EU Commission/FRISCO Project Final Conference, Brussels, 17-18 October 2024
McDonald, Broderick "Borderline Content, Free Speech, and Human Rights" VOXPol Webinar Series, with Hannah Rose, Heidi Schulze & Simon Greipl, and Ursula Schmid. Online. 03 July 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “Red Teaming for Law Enforcement, NGOs, and AI Developers”, Social Media & Terrorism Conference, Hillary Rodham Clinton School of Law, 19-20 June 2024
McDonald, Broderick. “Generative AI, Disinformation, and Society”, Commonwealth Parliamentarians Conference, Commonwealth Parliaments Association Secretariat, 04 December 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “Generative AI and Online Harms”, Ditchley AI Discussions, Ditchley Foundation, 30 October 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “The Role of Generative AI in Shaping Extremism, Disinformation, and Elections”, Oxford Generative AI Summit, Jesus College Oxford Digital Hub, Oxford Internet Institute, 22 October 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “Rebel Governance and Salafi-Jihadist Groups”, Centre for the Study of Intractable Conflict (CRIC) Annual Conference, University of Oxford, 18 September 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “Leading from Beside”, Global Leadership Initiative Conference, Cheng Kar Shun Digital Hub, University of Oxford, 23 June 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “Next Generation Leadership”, OCP Business & Society Conference, Rhodes House, University of Oxford, 16 June 2023
McDonald, Broderick and Guy Fiennes. “Counter-Terrorism and Russia’s Wagner Group in the Sahel and West Africa” Orion Policy Institute Podcast, 14 June 2023
McDonald, Broderick. “Understanding Jihadist Proto-States: Rebel Governance and the Next Generation of Jihadist Salafist Extremism” CDA Institute Conference, 29 September 2022
McDonald, Broderick. “Mitigating the Mental Health Risks of Researching Violent Extremism” Terrorism and Social Media Conference, Hillary Rodham Clinton School of Law, 28 June 2022
McDonald, Broderick. “Identity, Nationalism, and Fragmentation in the Modern Middle East” Middle East & Islamic Studies Consortium Conference, University of British Columbia, 16 May 2016
